May News & AMA | #PSC 200
OVERVIEW: Episode 200 of #PodSaveChocolate features chocolate and cocoa news fit to eat, as well as the monthly live AMA (Ask Me Anything about chocolate or cocoa) for May 2026.
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Episode 200 Overview
In this episode: Chocolate News thatâs Fit to Eat⢠for May 2026.
The Ongoing Saga of the Cost of Cocoa
& the new TCL Cocoa Market Report
| MARKETS |
|---|
| Barchart.com Futures Prices / Futures Overview |
| Trading Economics Chart |
| TradingCharts.com 1977 Baseline |
| ICCO Pricing Stats |
1. Strait of Hormuz resolution (or escalation)
Analysts expect cocoa prices to stabilize in the $3,500â$5,000/tonne range through 2026, but the Hormuz situation introduces a wildcard: if ceasefire talks collapse, freight and energy costs could spike again.
2. The 2025/26 surplus â will it actually materialize?
The market is pricing in a surplus. Rabobank cut its 2025/26 surplus estimate to 250,000 MT in February, down from 328,000 MT in November. The drought data and weak cherelle[[1]] formation suggest further downward revisions are coming.
[[1]]: A cherelle is the baby pod that emerges from a fertilized flower. Not all cherelles grow to maturity,
3. EUDR compliance â the December 2026 cliff
Large companies must comply with EUDR by December 30, 2026, with small and micro-enterprises following by June 30, 2027. Verified-origin beans now command a notable price premium â non-certified volumes are struggling to find willing international buyers. This bifurcation will intensify as the deadline approaches.
4. China's zero-tariff policy for African cocoa
China has announced zero-tariff treatment for 53 African countries, including major cocoa-producing countries, lowering entry costs for West African agricultural commodities into the Chinese market. This is an early-stage trend, but it may be directionally significant, as it creates an alternative demand pathway for West African-origin beans that bypasses traditional European and U.S. buyers.
5. Demand recovery (or continued destruction)
Major chocolate makers are signaling a âcautious stance toward holding prices rather than chasing volume recovery.â J.P. Morgan holds a medium-term price forecast of $6,000/tonne, framing this as structural rather than cyclical.
1. Mid-crop rainfall â the single most important short-term variable
The current drought in CĂ´te d'Ivoire and Ghana is the dominant near-term price driver. A meaningful rain event in MayâJune would rapidly shift sentiment bearish. Another dry month likely triggers a price spike.
2. ICE certified inventory levels
ICE cocoa inventories rose to a 19.5-month high of 2,540,983 bags. Rising certified stocks are a structural bearish anchor; they cap how high prices can go on any given supply scare.
3. Fund positioning â the short squeeze risk
Funds boosted short positions in NY cocoa to nearly 20,000 net-short contracts, the most in more than three years. Heavily shorted markets are violently prone to short-covering rallies on any bullish news. A rain failure, a Nigerian export disruption, a Hormuz escalation, any of these could trigger a rapid 10â15% price spike, driven by positioning, not fundamentals.
4. Cacao Swollen Shoot Virus (CSSV) spread
CSSV has impacted 81% of Ghana's crop and spread across 11 of CĂ´te d'Ivoire's 13 southwestern growing regions. This is the slow-moving catastrophe that doesnât make headlines but steadily erodes the structural supply base. If replanting programs don't accelerate meaningfully, the 2026/27 and 2027/28 crops face a compounding disease risk that no amount of good weather can fully offset. It is one (the?) reason prices may stay structurally elevated even in surplus years.
5. Barry Callebaut's potential cocoa division separation
Barry Callebaut has reportedly been exploring the separation of its cocoa division from its chocolate business to reduce exposure to volatile cocoa prices. If this proceeds, it would create a standalone entity controlling massive grinding capacity; a potential new counterparty structure for raw bean procurement. It could also signal that the era of vertically integrated cocoa-to-chocolate is on the verge of ending.
2026 Chocolate Scorecard â First Take
The 7th Edition (2026) of The Chocolate Scorecard has been released!
This will be a quick, first take, review, live, of whatâs in (and not in) this Scorecard. An in-depth review is planned for Friday, May 15th.
The Insights page is â... an advocacy document that selectively uses data to name and shame companies, but that blurs some important distinctions between what is known, what is inferred, and what is technically or politically realistic. It is useful, but far from neutral.â
In statistical terms, this is a voluntary response sample with unknown response bias. There is no adjustment for that bias and no obvious attempt to crossâcheck nonâparticipants through public data or regulatory filings. The architecture makes sense for a campaign tool, but not for claims that the Scorecard as such âcovers 90% of world cocoa.â Implication: The rankings tell you how a selfâselected subset of companies performed against Be Slavery Freeâs questionnaire about policy.
â source: custom LLM analysis prompts
This is a link to the Meet the Team page on the Chocolate Scorecard site. A lack of transparency, much?
More News
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| SFA is GOOD Food? | Progressive Grocer The Good Food Foundation board initiated the integration process in 2024 âto ensure the continuation of the Good Food brandâ with SFA support. In other words, longâterm viability and continuity of the Awards, Mercantile, and related programs. The handover is framed as being motivated by the Good Food Foundationâs need for an institutional home to secure the brand and by SFAâs desire to expand its reach, events portfolio, and member value while keeping the Good Food ethos and standards intact. |
Future Episodes
The 2026/7th Edition Chocolate Scorecard deep dive.
Episode Hashtags
#News #AMA #AskMeAnything
#cocoa #cacao #cacau
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Clay Gordon
Clay Gordon
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